The Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) elections, scheduled for 2025, are shaping up to be a critical contest in Assam’s Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR), a semi-autonomous region governed by the BTC under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution. The election will determine the control of the 40-member council, which oversees governance in the four districts of Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa, and Udalguri. The primary political players in this election include the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), and the Gana Suraksha Party (GSP), led by Naba Kumar Sarania.
The BJP and UPPL have been allies in the BTC since 2020, when they formed a coalition government with the UPPL as the leading partner, despite the BPF winning the most seats (17) in the 2020 BTC elections. The UPPL secured 12 seats, and the BJP won 9, forming a coalition with support from an independent candidate to oust the BPF.
Recent posts on X suggest a potential shift in this alliance. A post from May 20, 2025, claims that the BJP plans to contest the 2025 BTC elections independently, without an electoral alliance with the UPPL. This is a significant departure from their previous collaboration, which was credited for bringing peace and development to the BTR after decades of unrest. However, this claim remains unverified and should be treated as inconclusive until confirmed by official BJP statements or credible news sources.
The UPPL, led by BTC chief Pramod Boro, has emphasized its role in restoring peace and development in the BTR. The party’s confidence was boosted by a record victory in the 2024 Sidli Assembly by-election, where UPPL candidate Abhiram Brahma defeated the BPF’s Suddho Kumar Basumatary by a margin of 37,016 votes. This win was attributed to the UPPL-BJP coalition’s focus on peace-driven development, contrasting with the BPF’s alleged history of corruption and dominance.
If the BJP opts to contest alone, it may aim to capitalize on its organizational strength and the popularity of Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The BJP’s success in the 2024 Sidli by-election as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), alongside UPPL and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), suggests it may still leverage regional alliances in other Assam elections, but the BTC election’s unique dynamics could prompt a solo strategy to maximize seats.
The Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), led by Hagrama Mohilary, was the dominant force in the BTC from 2003 to 2020. Despite winning the most seats in the 2020 BTC elections, it lost power due to the BJP-UPPL coalition. The BPF remains a significant player due to its historical influence and support among sections of the Bodo community.
The BPF is likely to contest the 2025 BTC elections independently, as it did in 2020, focusing on regaining its lost ground. The party has criticized the UPPL-BJP coalition for failing to deliver on development promises and has positioned itself as a defender of Bodo interests. However, its loss in the 2024 Sidli by-election indicates challenges in overcoming the narrative of peace and progress promoted by the UPPL-BJP combine.
The Gana Suraksha Party, led by Naba Kumar Sarania, is a relatively new entrant in Assam’s political landscape. Sarania, a former militant turned politician, has gained prominence as an independent MP from Kokrajhar (2014–2024) before forming the GSP. The party aims to represent marginalized communities, including non-Bodo groups and Adivasis, in the BTR and beyond.
The GSP is expected to contest the 2025 BTC elections, likely with electoral understanding with BPF. The party’s appeal lies in its advocacy for non-Bodo communities and its critique of both the BJP-UPPL coalition and the BPF. However, its electoral strength in the BTC remains untested, as the council elections are heavily influenced by Bodo identity politics, where the UPPL and BPF have stronger roots.
There is no concrete evidence suggesting that the GSP will form an alliance with either the BPF or other major parties like the Congress or Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for the 2025 BTC elections. Sarania’s party’s focus on a distinct voter base make an alliance less likely, but strategic partnerships with BPF cannot be ruled out if the GSP seeks to expand its influence. GSp’s spokesperson Mrigaraj Das said in an interview with First Ne thai GSP is keen to make an electoral alliance with BPF. The interview is attached with this report.
Naba Kumar Sarania, also known as Hira Sarania, was the MP for Kokrajhar from 2014 to 2024, winning as an independent candidate in both elections. His victories were significant, as he defeated established parties in a Bodo-dominated constituency, drawing support from non-Bodo communities, including Adivasis, Bengalis, and other marginalized groups. In 2024, he lost the Kokrajhar Lok Sabha seat to UPPL’s Joyanta Basumatary, marking a setback for his political career.
Sarania’s GSP aims to challenge the dominance of Bodo-centric parties like the UPPL and BPF by appealing to non-Bodo voters in the BTR. The region has a diverse population, with non-Bodo communities forming a significant portion of the electorate in certain constituencies. Sarania’s ability to mobilize these voters could make him a factor in splitting votes, potentially affecting the outcome in closely contested seats.
Despite his past success in Lok Sabha elections, Sarania’s influence in the BTC elections may be limited. The BTC elections are more localized, and the council’s structure prioritizes Bodo representation, with 30 of the 40 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (primarily Bodos). The GSP’s focus on non-Bodo voters may not translate into significant seat wins but could disrupt the vote share of the UPPL and BPF in open constituencies.
One of the most significant controversies surrounding Sarania is the challenge to his Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, which allowed him to contest the Kokrajhar Lok Sabha seat (reserved for ST candidates). In 2024, the Assam government’s Directorate of Tribal Affairs issued a show-cause notice questioning his ST status, alleging that he did not belong to a recognized ST community. This led to his disqualification from contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections initially, though he was later allowed to run after legal intervention. The controversy damaged his campaign and contributed to his defeat. The issue remains unresolved and could resurface in the 2025 BTC elections, especially if he contests reserved seats.
The 2025 BTC elections will likely be a three-way contest between the BJP-UPPL combine (if the alliance holds), the BPF, and the GSP, with smaller parties like Congress and AAP playing marginal roles. The BJP’s potential decision to go solo could fragment the pro-development vote, benefiting the BPF or GSP in specific constituencies. If the electoral understanding between BPF and GSP materialises than the combined strength may be a big challenge to the BJP – UPPL coalition.
Sarania’s GSP could act as a spoiler by splitting votes in constituencies with significant non-Bodo populations. His influence is likely to be stronger in open seats (6 out of 40) and less impactful in reserved ST seats. However, his controversies, particularly the unresolved ST status issue, could limit his appeal an provide ammunition for opponents to discredit him.
The UPPL-BJP coalition’s narrative of transforming the BTR into a peaceful and developed region will be a central campaign theme. Their ability to showcase tangible achievements since 2020 will be crucial.
The BPF’s appeal to Bodo pride and its critique of the UPPL’s reliance on BJP support could resonate with voters wary of external influence in the BTR. Sarania’s GSP will target non-Bodo communities, but its organizational capacity and ability to convert support into seats remain uncertain.
The 2025 BTC elections are poised to be a high-stakes battle, with the BJP-UPPL coalition (if intact) holding an edge due to their recent electoral successes and narrative of peace and development. The BPF remains a strong contender but faces challenges in regaining voter trust. Naba Sarania’s GSP could disrupt the electoral landscape by appealing to non-Bodo voters. The BJP’s reported decision to contest independently, if true, could reshape the alliance dynamics and make the contest more unpredictable. Voters will ultimately decide based on issues of peace, development, and identity.